University Dropout in Italy – L’abbandono degli studi universitari in Italia,

Student dropout rates are a longstanding issue in Italian universities. The number of students who graduate is traditionally around 30 per cent of students who enroll for the first year of a university course. This outcome is considered an indicator of low performance of Italian universities. The literature shows that after the 2001 reform of the university system, dropout probability is lower. It is also argued that the reform had a significant impact on students’ motivation to complete a university degree. However, empirical analyses are still limited. The aim of this work is to carry out an analysis of Italian university dropouts, by focusing on the supply side of university education. The argument put forth in this paper is that higher students dropout rates may be explained by structural and organizational characteristics of each university (such as number of courses) rather than by students’ personal motivations only. This would imply that a better reorganization of university courses might allow to achieve a lower number of dropouts and, overall, a better performance of Italian students. In our study, the dependent variable selected for the analysis is the number of dropouts both for university students who enroll for the first time and all other university students, proxied by the number of students who did not obtain any university credit (cfu). Explanatory variables are related to supply (such as number of degree courses, number and location of decentralized branches for each university); postgraduate opportunities (PhD courses); students background (such as type of high school attended before university enrollment, average marks). Italian universities have been observed since the implementation of the reform. A common feature related to cross sectional time series data is unobserved heterogeneity, i.e. the possibility of unobserved time invariant effects due to each unit: for example, some universities, in spite of efforts to overcome some structural weaknesses, might maintain a reputation which is not aligned to the current quality of service. Hence, a fixed effects model has been selected. The analysis shows which factors, among those considered, have a higher impact on students dropouts: courses taught in decentralized branches appear to be particularly significant, especially for new enrolled students. Our analysis also suggests that universities with decentralized branches have a relevant impact on dropouts; therefore, corrective measures should point at the reorganizing of universities with branches located in peripheral areas.