A Mesoscopic Approach to Model Route Choice in Emergency Conditions

In this paper, a dynamic approach to simulate users’ behaviour when a hazardous event occurs in a transport network is proposed. Particularly, a route choice model within a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment framework is described, assuming that users can acquire information on the network status in real time. The effects of the event are taken into consideration by introducing a risk factor in arc cost function in order to allow en-route changes in users’ path choice decisions. The proposed approach is tested on a trial network, highlighting the evolution of changes in path choice caused by a hazardous event that modifies supply conditions.