A novel approach to assess evidence on air transport: insight from Italy

By using variables concerning both mobility demand and contextual factors, this paper investigates the determinants of air transport passenger flows. The empirical analysis is conducted on a panel dataset of Italian airports over the period 2000–2015. Panel data tests allow us to identify in the system GMM the most appropriate empirical methodology. Results suggest that runway length and total infrastructural endowment have a positive effect on air transport flow, while the presence of other airports in the province and the diffusion of the railway network have a negative effect. Geo–economic factors, such as distance from the airport and per–capita GDP, do not seem to play an important role. Moreover, results suggest a positive effect of low–cost carriers, tourism and high–speed trains. Main findings are still valid when we distinguish between international and national flights and between northern and southern airports. Overall, these findings lead us to conclude that policymakers and the management of airport companies may enjoy a fair amount of leeway to stimulate air traffic demand beyond the (almost) fixed demographic and geo–economic factors of a territory.