Evolution and determinants of the Phillips curve in advanced economies: a panel analysis

This paper examines the evolution of the relationship between inflation and unemployment in major advanced economies from 1991 to 2023. Starting from the theoretical debate on the Phillips Curve, from its original formulation to models based on the NAIRU and rational expectations, the study documents a progressive flattening of the curve over the last two decades. Through a panel analysis, the structural factors underlying this phenomenon are investigated, including market globalization, the increasing credibility of central banks in anchoring inflation expectations, and institutional transformations in the labor market. Specific focus is devoted to the Italian case, with particular reference to post-pandemic dynamics (2021-2023). The analysis highlights that recent inflation was predominantly driven by exogenous supply-side shocks (energy and food prices), while wage pressure remained contained due to the structure of collective bargaining and the stability of expectations. The findings confirm the persistence of a negative relationship between unemployment and inflation, albeit weakened, emphasizing the importance of national institutional specificities in defining macroeconomic policies.