Planning Evacuation by Means of a Multi-modal Mesoscopic Dynamic Traffic Simulation Model

In this paper analysis of a transportation system in emergency conditions due to an hazardous events is considered. To assess the effects on the transport network analysed, extension to a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model was developed in order to determine quantitative indicators for estimating the exposure component of total risk incurred by the transport networks in an area. In particular, the ability to allow for multi-modal (user) flows and network reliability was introduced. To give a practical example of the proposed model, it has been applied to a real case, studying evacuation in the hypothesis that in the event of a calamity, population in the area follows the instructions proposed by the municipal civil protection plan. The work shows that adequate quantitative methodologies based on a dynamic approach can be a useful tool to support the process of evacuation planning at several regional scales.