Quantitative transport risk analysis by TRAT-GIS on a regional scale

The transport of hazardous materials through Sicily is characterized by some critical factors. In this paper an extensive quantitative risk assessment, applied to the land transport of dangerous materials in Sicily, is outlined. The study has permitted the identification of some critical areas. The individual risk distribution and societal risk curves have been obtained and these results have suggested measures to reduce the risk in the East of Sicily. The case study focuses attention on the application of the analysis to a very large area which can be managed using the TRAT-GIS code without loss of accuracy in calculations compared to the previous application to a more restricted area, such as the crossing of the Straits of Messina. The discussion of the results involves a comparison between different means of transport, furthermore results of the risk evaluation have been compared with the new guidelines described in the recent Regional Transport Plan.