Estimation of the impact probability of fragments produced by explosions of vessels: a case study

In order to incorporate domino effect scenarios, deriving from the projection of fragment (so-called missile), within the standard QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis), a probabilistic model for the estimation of the impact probability of such fragment was developed by applying a Monte-Carlo method to the analytical solution of the set of equations describing the motion of the missile. The objective of this work is to further extend this probabilistic approach, which was previously developed for cylindrical vessels, to make it applicable also to spherical tanks. A case study is presented, it is the accident occurred in the refinery of Feyzin (France); the influence of the size and shape of the fragments on the impact probability is assessed.