Estimation of the Equipment Residual Lifetime in Major Hazard Industries by Using a Virtual Sensor

Prognostic is central in the management of components and production systems, structures and infrastructures. It aims estimating their health status and predicting residual useful lifetime, based on data and information related to degradation processes, the normal plant operability and the environmental conditions. Trustable estimates of the residual lifetime for systems allow achieving several goals, including a safe conduction of operations, an efficient operability that allows predictive maintenance actions and the extension of operational lifetime, under safety conditions. This point is particularly important in the context of the chemical and process industry, that is subject to the Seveso Directive. This normative recently imposed the plant operator to assess and manage equipment aging by redacting a detailed aging management plan. As a consequence, methods and tools are being developed for the assessment and management of deterioration mechanisms at major hazard industries. This paper presents the results related to the development of a virtual sensor for the estimation of the residual lifetime of the industrial equipment. In the initial version, the virtual sensor uses simplified models for the aging forecasting and information collected during audits and the equipment monitoring. Preliminary results of the implementation and testing of the initial version of the virtual sensor are shown by means of its application to a case-study.