Trade Policy Analysis: CETA on the international stage

In this dissertation we evaluate the effects of the CETA trade agreement on the international stage. We employ a PPML methodology and analyse the effects of the FTA under three different perspectives. Trade in agricultural goods between the EU and Canada, trade in agricultural goods compared to other FTAs and investments stocks. Two vast datasets have been built for this purpose. One, regarding the trade of agricultural goods at the chapter level of the HS classification method (24 chapters), containing bilateral observations for 225 entities and 11 years. A second, regarding the FDI stocks, containing bilateral observations for 253 entities and 24 years. We find that CETA has had a positive impact on transatlantic trade between the EU and Canada, not only at the general level but also at the section and chapter level, although, with relevant differences within chapters. We perform a similar evaluation in order to ascertain the effects of CETA in a dynamic contest and vis-à-vis comparable FTAs. We find CETA to remain positive and overall above average when compared with similar FTAs. We also present an hypothesis as to the differing performances of various FTAs. Lastly, we find indications that CETA impacted positively on bilateral FDIs in the post 2017 era when compared to other BITs. We discuss the “winners” and “losers” of international trade and present preliminary policy considerations. Building on the most recent methodological developments this work strives to delve deeper in chapter level effects of FTAs. We obtain new insights on CETA and, potentially, the positive effects of DTAs vis-à-vis traditional FTAs or BITs.