Modeling evacuation of a transport system: application of a multi-modal mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment model

In this paper, the analysis of a transportation system under emergency conditions due to hazardous events is considered. To assess the effects on the analyzed transport network, an extension to a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA)model was developed to determine quantitative indicators for estimating the exposure component of the total risk incurred by the transport networks in an area. In particular, a new version that is able to allow for multimodal networks and to consider network reliability was introduced. To give a practical example of the proposed model, it has been applied to two real networks, studying evacuation in the hypothesis that in the event of a calamity the population in the area follows the instructions proposed by the municipal civil protection plan. The work shows how adequate quantitative methodologies based on a dynamic approach can be a useful tool to support the process of evacuation planning at several scales.