The importance of disease prevalence in assessing the diagnostic value of a test:endoscopic markers in celiac disease

Background/Aims: We evaluated the diagnostic variability and reproducibility of endoscopic signs in two populations with a different pretest likelihood of celiac disease (CD). Methods: We recruited 289 CD patients (both adults and children) in a multicenter prospective study. Group 1 (high risk) included 111 patients referred for positive serology. Group 2 (low risk) included 178 unselected patients. Mosaic pattern, reduction/loss of Kerckring’s folds, scalloping of the valvulae conniventes and a nodular pattern were the endoscopic findings looked for in the duodenum. Results:In group 1, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of endoscopic findings were 100, 84.6, 94.2 and 100% in adults, and 86.8, 9.1, 82.1 and 12.5% in children. In group 2, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of endoscopic findings were 33.3, 91.4, 7.7 and 98.5% in adults, and noncalculable, 78.3, 0.0 and 100% in children. Comparing group 1 and group 2, there was a statistically significant difference in sensitivity and PPV in adults, and in specificity, PPV and NPV in children. Concerning the reproducibility of endoscopic findings, a wide variability of κ values was found. Conclusion: Endoscopic signs have low reproducibility for CD, and their diagnostic value in selecting patients for multiple intestinal biopsies is unacceptable, especially in populations with low disease prevalence.