The Influence of Meteorological Factors on the Wooded Fires in Messina Province: a Statistical Modeling

The problem of forest fires takes on dramatic dimensions, so as to arouse uproar at all levels. This paper aims to provide a detailed overview of the fires in Messina province, occurred in the period June 2002 -August 2010 and, particularly, we want to analyze, through adequate statistical modeling, the influence of meteorological variables into favouring the extension of fires. For this aim we analyzed the cause (fraudulent, negligent and unknown causes), the wooded and not wooded compromised surface and the meteorological variables recorded in whether station located in the country in which the fire happened. By obtained results, both the temperature and the relative humidity play an important role in the spread of the fire, when the cause is fraudulent or unknown; in particular the increase of the temperature assumes a significant importance. The influence of weather factors on the expansion of fires does not change if the involved surface is wooded or not wooded. Moreover in the different weather stations there is a great variability related to the influence of meteorological factors, due to the diversity of geographical location and heights from sea level.