Hypocalcemia is the most frequent complication after thyroidectomy and central neck dissection (CND). Early intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) determination has been proposed as an early predictor parathyroid gland state. We aim to describe iPTH kinetics after central compartment lymph node dissection (CLND). Methods: A large prospective observational study was conducted among 840 patients who underwent thyroid cancer surgery between July and December 2016 in China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University. Data were obtained from the patient’s iPTH evaluation 15 min after CND and serum calcium records during three years of post-operative follow-up. Age, sex, BMI, preoperative PTH, operative and pathologic details were analyzed. Backward stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed to find potential risk factors for predicting iPTH <15 pg/mL. The odds ratio and 95% confidence interval are estimated using the logistic regression coefficients. The prediction model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: The incidence of permanent hypocalcemia was 0.12%, while, 44.52% of patients were central lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analyses found associations among iPTH <15 pg/mL and several risk factors, especially preop PTH and type of surgery. The risk of iPTH <15 pg/mL, after total thyroidectomy plus CND, is almost 17 times that of lobectomy plus CND (OR=17.648, 95% confidence interval: 10.011– 31.110). A model was created using multivariate analysis, which involved surgical procedure, and preop PTH could separate thyroid operation with iPTH <15 pg/mL. The biological index showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.697 and 0.613 separately. Using values below the lowest or above the highest cut-off point, the presence or absence of iPTH <15 pg/mL could possibly be predicted before thyroidectomy and CND. Conclusions: A lobectomy procedure for papillary thyroid carcinoma patients with clinically uninvolved neck lymph nodes (cN0) who have primary tumors (T1 or T2) could accompany prophylactic CND (ipsilateral or bilateral) to provide clearance of disease compared to total thyroidectomy.
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