L’evoluzione delle differenze territoriali nella fecondità in Italia: uno sguardo retrospettivo al quarantennio 1981-2021

In this paper, we present an analysis of Italian Total Fertility Rates (TFR) at the provincial level over the period 1981-2021, utilizing a novel data reconstruction. Adopting a spatial approach, this study: (1) offers a comprehensive examination of the temporal dynamics of provincial TFR across four decades, (2) categorizes these temporal evolutions using both global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses to identify spatial clusters, and (3) utilizes Ordinary Least Squares, Spatial Autoregressive and Spatial Error models to correlate the fertility trends with selected covariates. These covariates represent four socio-economic dimensions – education, secularization and values, employment, economic well-being – measured at the onset of each decade. Our findings elucidate the central role of spatial dynamics, particularly during the central decades (1991-2001) of the investigated period. The persistent North-South divide, a prominent feature of Italy’s social and economic landscape, manifested itself distinctly, with the spatial micro-clusters undergoing transformations across the period. Moreover, the analysis corroborates the notion that fertility rates are shaped not solely by immediate economic determinants but also by entrenched cultural norms, which are not easy to modify. Finally, the explanatory capacity of our model shows a decline in the last decade. This study may serve as a first step towards a better understanding of the intricate social interactions and novel phenomena influencing Italy’s fertility trends over the last forty years, rendered through a long-term spatial analytical lens.